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Correct judgement prices rises and macroscopical economy goes situation
From;    Author:Stand originally
Since this year, progress of our country economy lies a new juncture. Face international economy environment not to decide factor increase and domestic prices rise faster complex phase, the main orientaton of macroscopical adjusting control should be to prevent economy to grow by slant to turn quickly for overheat, prevent the price to rise too quickly, also should avoid at the same time " hard-land " , prevent economy to rise rate fall after a rise too big. Below this kind of setting, correct judgement prices rises and macroscopical economy goes situation, stable to maintaining economy rapidder development has important sense.
   New the cause of formation that round of prices rises and characteristic
Since reforming and opening, our country has experienced serious inflation twice: It is to came 1988 for the first time 1989, index of dweller consumption price (CPI) achieve respectively 18.8% with 18% ; It is the 2nd to came 1993 1995, CPI is achieved respectively 14.7% , 24.1% with 17.1% . What began 2007 is new round of prices rises to be compared with before two photographs, open in system environment, economy degree, the respect such as pattern of total supply and demand is having very big different. This round of prices rises more complex, already demand is pulled move again cost is driven, already domestic reason has input inflation effect again, a variety of element overlay are caused. Its are main characteristic and cause of formation are:
Produce rises in price give priority to the price structure sex that drive to rise. CPI went tall to begin to rise in price at commissariat of the beginning of the year and edible vegetable oil 2007, quickly May pork price is paroxysmal rise, annual rises 4.8% . Among them, food price rises amount to 12.3% , influence CPI rises 4.1 percent. CPI rose compared to the same period first quarter 2008 8% , amplitude compared to the same period tower above 5.3 percent, among them food price rises compared to the same period 21.4% . Mixed in April CPI rose respectively compared to the same period in May 8.5% with 7.7% , among them food price rises respectively compared to the same period 22.1% with 19.9% , remain main factor. This round of produce rises in price, besides a few short-term factors (if the epidemic disease of live pig happening, experience at the beginning of this year is serious last year microtherm rain snow is freezing shake of earth of calamity He Wenchuan) , basically be the influence of long-term element in sufferring. It is come from 1997 2006, CPI accumulative total rises 9.5% , average and annual do not rise 1% , especially produce price is in inferior level for years, and price of agricultural production data rises continuously, produce produces cost to increase to drive produce to rise in price necessarily substantially. 2 it is our country industrialization, town changes a process to accelerate, its are as a result: On one hand farmland year after year decreases, countrywide farmland area reduces 88.2 million mus completely since 2002; On the other hand town population increases ceaselessly, town population is annual since 2002 add nearly 20 million people, together with grows continuously as people income, to produce (especially cultivate birds product) demand increases increasingly. Accordingly, form a mechanism from produce price no matter (finite, agriculture suffers farmland of natural condition restrict demand of big, produce to certain tigidity waits decided produce price to add average gain to decide by the manufacturing cost of poor condition) look, still look from rule of produce supply and demand, this round of produce rises in price is inevitable. The history of industrialized country makes clear, produce price rises stage by stage, make scissors differential of value of product of industry and agriculture narrows stage by stage thereby, it is to accompany industrialized, city to change the long-term trend with inevitable process. Also our country should experience this process necessarily. The problem depends on, as a result of before some year of produce price is stable all the time in inferior level, make contradiction is accumulated gradually, concentration erupts, so that food has risen in price since last year fast, bigger to the basic life influence of low income group. Accordingly, must adopt what strong step controls price total level to rise too quickly.
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