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Indigestion return hard infirmly, the city after palm oil looks weak
From;    Author:Stand originally
Since July, grease was greeted one round another round considerably, drop acutenessly prices, of the short, extent of time make greatly the market is astonished. As if between one night, still be the oil price that stand high above the masses before, level that returns 7 the beginning of the year. Be in in the near future especially get drop positional palm oil, more defeat in order to drop appear on the market the breathtaking prices of the price, decline all the way reach 5816 yuan / ton the history is new low, relatively the annual maximum price March 11300 yuan / ton, drop achieve 48.53% .
See so tremendous drop, many with " value invests " the itch to try of the capital that copy a copy that is intent. Current, suit much sheet to enter the arena really?
Here, author general basis the current situation of palm oil market, do one brief analysis.
Above all, from the circumstance analysis of integral commodity market. As a result of July of CRB index drop considerably, integral commodity market slants air atmosphere turns thick; In August, dollar index goes strong considerably, with one action is broken through 80, meanwhile, crude price falls defeat considerably, drop one after another broken 120, 110 dollars / of the bucket important prop up, commodity market is lost come from crude oil to go tall the pillar to the price; In September 13, 14, in home between small mid-autumn long holiday, explode again gave Lei Man suspend payment, United States forest to be bought to wait for breathtaking message, come out again subsequently AIG also faces the crisis, beautiful couplet store 85 billion dollar helps city, european Union, Japan and China also publish measure in succession. Temporarily between, about second the discussion that borrows storm of the crisis, finance again arisen, to hind of condition of economy of city whole world be anxious to cause congenial enthusiasm to be cut down, the market is bought promote inadequacy.
Next, from the analysis of main area circumstance of itself of palm oil breed.
Advocate exit yield a country sells a field, drop considerably in the price later, the country such as China, India, Pakistan buys an a large number of beak a contract, under photograph comparing, advocate Malaysia yield a country and Indonesian do not have very strong price capability, when facing this one situation, it is to adopt more suspend the sailing date, way that signs a contract afresh. Even if is such, still exist about the worry of break a contact, current, as in October sailing date drawing near, exporter still does not eliminate this kind of possibility. In the meantime, as a result of " buy go up to be not bought drop " the existence of state of mind, suffer the doubtful fixing of price of a few months is noisy recently, middle east buys the home in October - when the palm oil demand of season still 70%-80% was not purchased in December.
Advocate the stocks that produces a country also is an aspect that cannot ignore, as a result of 07/08 year, of palmy tree cultivate an area to soar, crop also had substantially rise. August, as a result of advocate the inventory of Malaysia yield a country achieves nearly 2 million tons, be opposite directly horse dish formed pressure, although its government strive passes the plan that adds biology fuel to reduce inventory pressure, august, volume of export of Malaysia biology fuel was achieved 11, 586 tons, far outclass get on 36 tons of year of the corresponding period. But, in crude oil drop greatly again and again below the circumstance, this one effort effect is very small.
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